Involvement of USA is vital. On political front reconciliation of the conflicting interests of regional States is required. Flow of oil in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, to the West, can be ensured using diplomatic channels.
Oil, natural gas and deposits of rare metals in the region are the main attraction for the world powers. Azerbaijan needs helpmodernize its oilfields, production of which has fallen from 8% of USSR total in 1965 to 0.6% by 1988. Estimated reserves of oil in Azerbaijan are 240,000 billion dollars (Atlas, p86-87). Nine million emigrants in USA and Syria is another asset. Her other main problems are Nagorno Karabakh (N.K). Armenia is over dependent on imported energy and raw materials and fought full scale war on N.K with Azerbaijan in 2003 and this issue dominates national life in both countries (Atlas, p74-75). USA has good opportunity to help resolve the issue of N.K and win appreciation of both countries. She can also increase her exports of raw material to Armenia, thus economically influencing the latter.
There is a war and politics for oil and mineral resources and all players are applying military component according to demands of the situation. USSR has not given up its struggle to regain influence in the region. Iran is yet another silent player. But South Azeri People’s Army (SAPA) created problems in north western areas where the emergence of an independent state is in offing. This State of “Ahurastan”, comprising of north western Iran and western Azerbaijan, has a revolutionary anti-American and anti-West agenda. It may challenge Azeri claim over Caspian Sea area and can disrupt the oil exploration process in the region.
1.Protection of oil pipelines, especially BTC, and bridges from blowing up by SAPA.