The analysis of price and income effects based on the estimated demand system has suggested that with the increase in food price inflation, the demand for staple food (rice, wheat, and sugar) may not be affected adversely but, that of high-value food commodities is likely to be affected negatively.” The increase in the price of orange due to supply constraints would lead to increase in prices of other fruits in general.
Poor people tend to spend more on bread, a staple food item in spite of price increase by reducing their consumption of other food which cost more. This phenomenon is called as ‘Giffen’s Paradox’. Giffen’s paradox is not applicable in the case of orange, as it is not a staple food in poor households. Demand for the orange cannot be considered inelastic. Silberberg and Walker(687) observe “When the price of the Giffen good changes, therefore, not only does the income term outweigh the substitution term for the Giffen good, but a similar result is produced for the cross effect on the other commodity.” Therefore, increase in the price of orange will lead to increase in the price of other fruits like grapes or apples due to the substitution effect.
The increase in price or orange induces farmers to increase the area under crop for oranges which are expected to increase the production of oranges to the normal level of demand in the economy. However, when the farmers have other alternatives of producing corn or other grasses, may be at a lesser cost of production for manufacture of ethanol, the scenario with regard to supply pattern changes drastically. President George W. Bush called for the United States to reduce its gasoline consumption by 20% in the next decade. Considering the growth rates in consumption of gasoline, reduction in consumption of gasoline is very difficult. He proposed an increase in ethanol produced from corn and the stalks and leaves from corn and other grasses.