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An advertising campaign is canceled before launch

Author:
January 13th, 2018

An advertising campaign is canceled before launch with probability 0.10, in which case the marketing company is fired with probability 0.74; is launched but canceled early with probability 0.18, in which case the marketing company is fired with probability 0.43; is launched and runs its targeted length with probability 0.43, in which case the marketing company is fired with probability 0.16; and is launched and is extended beyond its targeted length with probability 0.29, in which case the marketing company is fired with probability 0.01. What is the probability that the marketing company is fired? If the marketing company is fired, what is the probability that the advertising campaign was not canceled before launch?

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