Kaplan MM305 Unit 7 Project Assignment 2016
1.
Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time,
Susan Solomon has been thinking about starting her own independent gas
station. Susan’s problem is to decide
how large her station should be. The
annual returns will depend on both the size of the station and a number of
marketing factors related to oil industry and demand for gasoline. After careful analysis, Susan developed the
following table:
Size of Gasoline
Station
Good
Market ($)
Fair
Market ($)
Poor
Market ($)
Small
$75,000
$25,000
-$10,000
Medium
$100,000
$70,000
-$20,000
Large
$250,000
$75,000
-$30,000
You may use
Excel QM or QM for Windows:
1.
What
is the Maximax decision?
Answer:
Explanation (include software output or calculation):
2.
What
is the Maximin decision?
Answer:
Explanation (include software output or calculation):
3.
What
is the criterion of realism decision? Use ? = 0.3.
Answer:
Explanation (include software output or calculation):
4.
Develop
an Opportunity Loss Table.
Table:
5.
What
is the Minimax Regret Decision?
Answer:
2. Data collected on the
yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Sunshine Garden Supply are
shown in the following table.
Year
Demand
for Fertilizer (1,000s of Bags)
1
5
2
8
3
5
4
6
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
10
9
12
10
14
11
16
1.
Develop
a three-year moving average to forecast sales in year 12.
Answer:14,000 bags
Sunshine Garden
Forecasting
Moving averages
– 3 period moving average
Num pds
3
Data
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period
Demand
Forecast
Error
Absolute
Squared
Abs Pct Err
Period 1
5
Period 2
8
Period 3
5
Period 4
6
6
0
0
0
00.00%
Period 5
6
6.333333333
-0.333333333
0.333333333
0.111111111
05.56%
Period 6
7
5.666666667
1.333333333
1.333333333
1.777777778
19.05%
Period 7
8
6.333333333
1.666666667
1.666666667
2.777777778
20.83%
Period 8
10
7
3
3
9
30.00%
Period 9
12
8.333333333
3.666666667
3.666666667
13.44444444
30.56%
Period 10
14
10
4
4
16
28.57%
Period 11
16
12
4
4
16
25.00%
Total
17.33333333
18
59.11111111
159.56%
Average
2.166666667
2.25
7.388888889
19.95%
Bias
MAD
MSE
MAPE
SE
3.138765976
Next period
14
2.
Develop
a 3-year weighted average to predict demand in year 12, in which sales in the
most recent year is given a weight of 3, the second most recent year is
weighted 2 and sales in the third most recent year has a weight of 1.
Answer:14,667 bags
Forecasting
Weighted moving
averages – 3 period moving average
Data
Forecasts and Error
Analysis
Period
Demand
Weights
Forecast
Error
Absolute
Squared
Abs Pct Err
Period 9
12
1
3 periods ago
Period 10
14
2
2 periods ago
Period 11
16
3
1 periods ago
Total
0
0
0
00.00%
Average
0
0
0
00.00%
Bias
MAD
MSE
MAPE
SE
0
Next period
14.66666667
Not enough data to compute the
standard error
3.
Develop
a regression/trend line to estimate the demand for fertilizer in year 12.
Answer:
Explanation
(include software output or calculation):
4.
Analysis
of the forecasting errors indicates which forecasting constant is best in this
situation?
Answer:
Explanation:
3. Kaplan College has
decided to “wire” its campus. The first stage in this effort is to
install the “backbone,” i.e., to connect all the buildings. The table
below gives the distances between the various buildings on campus in hundreds
of feet.
You may use QM for Windows or
complete it by hand:
Distances in Hundreds of Feet
From
To
Building
1
Building
2
Building
3
Building
4
Building
5
Building
6
Building
1
5
6
4
4
7
Building
2
5
3
4
5
Building
3
6
3
4
Building
4
2
3
Building
5
5
Building
6
1.
How
should the buildings be connected to minimize the total length of cable?
Answer:
Explanation (including any calculations or software output):
2.
What
length of cable is required?
4. The
following represents the distances in miles from a warehouse (node 1) to
various cities in Montana. The major outlet store is located at node 7.
From
Node
To
Node
Distance
1
2
50
1
4
140
2
3
20
2
4
25
3
4
50
3
5
25
3
6
75
4
5
50
4
7
20
5
6
45
5
7
75
6
7
40
You may use QM for Windows or
complete it by hand:
1.
Find
theshortest route and distance from Node 1 to Node 7.
Answer:
Explanation (including any
calculations or software output):
5. The
network of a city sewer system and their capacities are shown below. Remember
that the arc has both capacity and reverse capacity. For example, row 1 is the
flow from node 1 to node 2 and row 2 is the reverse flow from node 2 to node 1.
There are seven branches in this network.
From
Node
To
Node
Fluid
Flow
1
2
100
2
1
200
1
3
150
3
1
250
1
4
400
4
1
400
1
5
250
5
1
150
2
4
350
4
2
200
3
4
250
4
3
350
3
5
100
5
3
250
You may use QM for Windows or
complete it by hand:
1.
Determine the maximum flow (inhundreds of gallonsof water per minute) from node 1 to
node 5.
Answer:
Explanation (including any
calculations or software output):
6. The governor of
Michigan believes that the state can improve the state’s crime rate if the
state can reduce the college debt carried by its citizens and if they can
increase the percent of the population covered by health insurance. (This
requires you to use the States Dataset file that is included in Doc
Sharing->Instructor Graded Projects.)
1.
Using
theStates Data Set and Excel DataAnalysis
(Regression),create the multiple regression
prediction equation of the form? =b0 +b1(X1) +b2(X2)
Answer:
Explanation (including any calculations or software output):
2.
Predict
the crime rate for Michigan if the college debt were $20,000 and the percent
not covered by insurance was 15% or 15?
Answer:
Explanation (including any calculations or software output):
7. A concessionaire for the local ballpark
has developed a table of conditional values for the various alternatives
(stocking decisions) and states of nature (size of crowd).
Stocking Decision
Large
Crowd ($)
Average
Crowd ($)
Small
Crowd ($)
Large Inventory
$32,000
$22,000
-$2,000
Average Inventory
$25,000
$20,000
$6,000
Small Inventory
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
You may use
Excel QM or QM for Windows:
If
the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0.50 for a large
crowd, 0.25 for an average crowd, and 0.25 for a small crowd, determine:
1.
The
alternative that provides the greatest expected monetary value (EMV).
Answer:
Explanation (including any
calculations or software output):
2.
The
expected value of perfect information (EVPI).
Answer:
Explanation (including any
calculations or software output):
